Subject Re: Oracle Finds the Flaw in MySQL's Business Plan
Author paulruizendaal
> Why not just buy them, as the company has done with other important
> pieces?

Sean,

It was probably the VC's at the helm, not Marten.

He had two options:
- buy InnoBase using MySQL stock. Not very interesting for InnoBase
during most of the last 5 years.
- buy InnoBase using cash. The VC's will have short-sightedly blocked
that, because they would perceive it as 1 party cahsing out before
they did. They don't like that.

I think the euro 3-5 mln number mentioned in the press might be
correct. InnoBase could probably have made more in a MySQL IPO next
year, if they had done a share deal around now.

- perhaps the relations between the VC's and InnoBase had soured
- perhaps InnoBase has inside knowledge that MySQL isn't doing too
well and a big IPO in 2006 might not occur.

Of course I am highly biased, but I really think that the MySQL
success story has peaked somewhere around 2004. The headline sales
number for 2005 may be double the 2004 number (40 instead of 20
million), but I doubt that the profit figure looks just as okay.
Perhaps sales in 2006 will only be 30 mln:
- SQLite has a better story on the low end
- Firebird has a better story in the middle
- Oracle/DB2 has a better story for corporate & enterprise

In due modesty, those sales numbers are of course much more than the
grand total of all Firebird plays. However, there may be more profit
in Firebird plays (i.e. profit>0) than in MySQL right now (i.e.
profit<0).

Paul